Wall Street Divided on Stock Market Outlook in the 2nd Half of 2023

Wall Street Divided on Stock Market Outlook

The stock market in the second half of 2023 has left Wall Street with conflicting views and uncertainties.

While some experts warn of potential risks and weakening consumer signs, others remain optimistic about continued gains.

Investors are eager to understand the market trends and potential shifts that may impact their investment decisions.

Here's a look at the differing opinions and forecasts from investment strategists for the second half of the year.

JPMorgan: 'Unattractive risk-reward for equities.'

JPMorgan's chief global markets strategist, Marko Kolanovic, expresses concerns about the risk-reward ratio for equities.

He highlights weakening consumer signs and fading fiscal headwinds as factors contributing to the potential risks.

Kolanovic also predicts an economic recession by early 2024, further adding to the cautionary tone.

Tightening liquidity and credit conditions due to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction pose additional risks.

Carson Group: 'A sunny second half of 2023 is likely.'

Contrary to JPMorgan's outlook, Carson Group's chief market strategist, Ryan Detrick, remains optimistic.

Historical data indicates the potential for continued surges in the stock market during the second half of the year.

Detrick points to a median return of 11% for the S&P 500 when the first-half performance is between 10% and 15%.

Based on this trend, he believes the current uptrend is likely to persist, resulting in a positive second half.

Fundstrat: 'Expect +12% or higher second half 2023.'

Fundstrat's Tom Lee holds a bullish stance, forecasting a jump of 12% or more in the S&P 500 by year-end.

Lee sees favorable conditions for the second half, such as a potentially more accommodative Federal Reserve on inflation.

He recommends overweighting mega-cap tech stocks, industrial stocks, and energy stocks for potential gains.

Lee's positive outlook aligns with his belief in the market's ability to surpass expectations and drive growth.

Stocks and Bonds Diverge on Dangerous Paths

The divergence between stocks and bonds raises concerns about a potential painful reversion to the mean.

While rates and the dollar anticipate more Federal Reserve rate hikes due to sticky inflation, the equity market disagrees.

The valuation gap between stocks and bonds carries risks for stock investors, signaling a potential correction.

This significant divergence is unlikely to last indefinitely, and a revision to the mean could be imminent.

The equity market's perception of inflation being no longer a problem contrasts with signals from the dollar and bond market.


mfox@businessinsider.com (Matthew Fox). (June 28, 2023). Wall Street can't agree on where stocks are headed in the 2nd half of the year. markets.businessinsider.com.
seekingalpha.com. (June 28, 2023). Stocks And Bonds Diverge On Dangerous Paths. seekingalpha.com.

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